Convert odds to implied probability
American odds are translated into the break-even probability represented by each price. For positive odds, probability is 100 ÷ (odds + 100). For negative odds, it is |odds| ÷ (|odds| + 100).
Published methodology
How Edge estimates fair odds and grades value
Edge grades the price, not the chance that one bet will win. Here’s how Edge compares sportsbook prices, estimates fair odds, and assigns an A–F grade.
Estimate fair value from the market
Edge averages the implied probabilities from matching sportsbook lines to estimate fair value. It is a market-based estimate, not a guarantee of the true odds.
Calculate estimated edge
Estimated edge is the market-consensus implied probability minus the implied probability of the current offered odds. A positive gap means the current offer is more favorable than the consensus estimate.
Apply quality controls
Edge keeps the strongest side for a duplicated matchup/market, validates prediction-market prices, matches teams across providers, and caps displayed edge at 25% for prediction markets and pick’em integrations.
Published thresholds
What each grade means
AExcellent value3% or higher
BGood value2% to below 3%
CFair value1.2% to below 2%
DMarginal value0.5% to below 1.2%
FLow valueBelow 0.5%
Limits
What an Edge grade does not tell you
Market consensus can be wrong. Data can be delayed. Lines can move. A grade does not incorporate every injury, limit, tax, promotion, or account restriction, and it does not guarantee profit. Always verify the final price and use stakes you can afford to lose.